We often focus on the immediate, the quick fix, the instant reward. But, real returns, the kind that leaves a lasting impact, isn’t built on fleeting wins. It’s about understanding the powerful connection between cause and effect, and realising that the results we see today are often the culmination of actions taken long ago.

Think of it like this:

Imagine two graphs. One represents your memory of the work you put in, and the other represents the effects of that work.

The memory graph starts high, because you remember what you did today. You can vividly recall that late-night brainstorming session, that intense sales call, or that long, arduous research project. It’s fresh in your mind, and you feel the effort you put in. But, as time passes, your memory fades. You might remember the general gist of what you did, but the details blur. The effort you put in feels like a distant memory. You might even start to believe that the results you’re seeing now are directly linked to the work you did yesterday, or the week before.

The effect graph, however, starts low, and slowly climbs over time. The actions you took today might not have a noticeable impact immediately. It’s like planting a seed. You can’t expect a full-grown tree overnight. But, over time, with consistent care and attention, the seed will sprout, grow, and eventually bear fruit. The real magic happens when you realize that the fruit you’re harvesting today is the result of years of consistent effort, of planting seeds and nurturing them.

The problem is that most people get caught up in the memory graph. They focus on the first-order consequences of their actions, the immediate results. They see a tiny sprout and think, “This isn’t working!” They’re too focused on the short-term, and they fail to see the long-term potential. They believe that the success they’re experiencing now is directly tied to the work they did yesterday, or the week before. They fail to recognize the compounding effect of their actions over time.

This short-sightedness is even evident in children. The classic Stanford Marshmallow Experiment, also known as the Marshmallow Test, measures a child’s ability to delay gratification. Children are given a marshmallow and told they can have a second one if they wait for a set period. Some kids can’t resist the immediate reward and gobble up the marshmallow right away. Others, however, demonstrate remarkable self-control and wait for the bigger reward -for more details check the reference-.

The experiment helps researchers understand the relationship between self-control and later-life outcomes, showing that those who could delay gratification often went on to achieve greater success in life.

The ability to delay gratification is just one aspect of long-term thinking. It’s also about considering the second-order consequences of your actions. What will happen as a result of the immediate outcome? For example, if you take a shortcut at work, you might get your task done faster, but you might also damage your reputation or create resentment among your colleagues.

Thinking about third-order consequences is even more important. What will be the long-term impact of the second-order effects? If you consistently take shortcuts, you might eventually lose your job or miss out on opportunities for advancement.

Most people don’t think this way. They’re too focused on the current outcomes, the immediate rewards. They fail to see the bigger picture, the long-term consequences of their decisions.

The real winners in life and business are those who can think beyond the immediate. They’re willing to delay gratification, they consider the second and third-order effects of their actions, and they make decisions that will benefit them in the long run.

They’re like the gardener who patiently nurtures their seed, knowing that the rewards will come in due time.

Take Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, for example. He’s one of the best examples of a leader who thinks in terms of long-term consequences. When he was building Amazon, his company was making losses for years. People were puzzled, making fun of his strategy, and questioning his sanity. But, Bezos understood the power of compounding.

He knew that building a strong foundation, investing in innovation, and focusing on customer satisfaction would pay off in the long run. In his annual letters to investors, he consistently emphasised his long-term objectives, demonstrating his commitment to the long game. And, as we all know, his strategy paid off. Amazon is now one of the most successful companies in the world.

So, next time you’re faced with a decision, ask yourself:

What are the long-term consequences of this action?

Will it help me achieve my goals?

Will it build momentum and create lasting value?

If the answer is yes, then you’re on the right track.

You’re playing the long game. And, if you want to have remarkable results, the long game is the only game worth playing.